S&P500 – 1987 vs 2011 vs 2015 – Pattern of Price, Time and Cycles, Elliot Wave and Retracements


The last time I compared 2015 with 2011 and 1987 (click here) I mainly focused on the Pattern of Price and Elliot Wave.

Today, I also include the variables Time and Fibonacci.

Let’s start with the first image, a presentation of the variable Time (Cyclical Analysis). I will explain what I did.

I started by writing down the Calendar Dates of the 1987, 2011 and 2015 correction. Why? Click here.

Then I calculated the amount of Calendar and Trading Days for each separate wave and I calculated the amount of Days for the full corrective wave to finish. What I find interesting is that in both cycles (2011 and 1987) it took more than 60 Trading Days to finish the pattern. Currently, the 2015 pattern is taking 56 Trading Days and 75 Calendar Days. A bit short in Time I would say.

 

1987 vs 2011 vs 2015 Time

Now, if I assume that the total corrective cycle for 2015 is 61 Trading Days, it would lead to OCTOBER 9.

If I assume that the total corrective cycle for 2015 is 66 Trading Days, it would lead to OCTOBER 16.

If I assume that the total corrective cycle for 2015 is 88 Calendar Days, it would lead to OCTOBER 16.

If I assume that the total corrective cycle for 2015 is 104 Calendar Days, it would lead to NOVEMBER 1.

And of course, I realize that 2015 does not have to be an exact copy of 1987 or 2011.

But what I do notice is that the current cycle of 56 Trading Days (or 75 Calendar Days) seems a bit too short. So that would lead to the conclusion that there’s more time needed to decline and finish this corrective wave before we set Higher Highs into 2016.

Let’s take it one step further.

If I combine these outcomes with my own Cyclical Model (OCT 5,6,8,13,19,29 and 30, click here) and the Bradley Model (OCT 9,10,17 – October 9-10 – On these two Days there are very strong turns in both the Middle Terms and Declinations, and this could result in an especially strong turn, click here) the following periods seem important for October 2015.

OCT 8-10, OCT 16-19, OCT 29-NOV 1.

OCT 9 is next Friday, my first Target point for a High or Low. I updated these scenarios in the Daily and Weekly Charts of the S&P500 (click on the name to visit the chart).

 

Let’s continue with Price and Retracement Levels. 

Comparing the Price action of 2015 with 2011 it also seems we have some downside potential left. I assumed wave 5 down in 2015 now @ 1870 to analyze if there’s more downside potential.

1987 vs 2011 vs 2015 fibonacci

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