The S&P500 rose to new All Time Highs today, intraday popping above 2400, but the strange thing is, VIX is also in a pattern of a Higher High and Higher Low since mid FEB. And Interest Rates have come down in Europe for the last couple of weeks, inflow into bonds. Makes sense then to see a correction in equities. But since the SuperTrend and Pattern of Price (Higher Highs and Higher Lows) are still positive > 2370, bears (including me) can only sit still or cut your loss. Bulls could use a stop loss for the short term of 2370-2355.
For the long term (years), I believe in the value of stocks, not for the next couple of weeks/months (APR & JUN) though.
Check out the daily and 4h chart below.
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DAILY CHART S&P500 – Bullish > 2370
ELLIOTT WAVE –> UPTREND > 2370, forming the 5th wave up. A break below < 2370 confirms abc next.
KEY LEVELS @ 2355/70. A break below these levels and the bears might take over into the next major cycle date.
FEB 16/17, 23, 27
MAR 2/3, 9, 13/14, 24, 30
S&P500 vs VIX 4h chart
Both the S&P500 and the VIX are on the rise, S&P500 for day 121 and VIX since mid FEB.
That’s weird, normally they should move in the opposite direction. Normally. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think stocks are the bubble now, just that it’s overextended to the upside and a 5-10% retest would make sense (S&P500 2200). But then again, sense never was useful when trading the markets.
The 4h SuperTrend stays on a Long signal if close > 2378. RSI 4h shows Bearish Divergence.
VIX (right side) is on a LONG signal > 11.61. Looks like someone is buying protection.
One of the two (S&P500 or VIX) has to give in…
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