In this update I would like to reflect on some of my trades in the PatternTrader11 account from last week and show you guys my watchlist for this week: what stocks to buy or sell?
Secondly, I will share my trades on the general markets that I execute in my second account The Trend is our Friend (EdwinVandenBerg).
One last note…this week I became a father for the first time, of a wonderful boy. Now, when I look back over my 35 years presence here, I wonder why people (including me 😉 are making a fuzz out of the small things in life and become frustrated about the market when it moves in the wrong direction. One glimpse at my boy and I close the computer and enjoy the “only” thing that matters right now…such a happy feeling guys, never thought it would be this great 🙂 What a beautiful life changer! I really hope you’ll all enjoy this feeling some day…
Enjoy the day!
Last Week’s Trades
Short Accenture – 4% in the money right now, changed the trailing stop to 4%, so worst thing that can happen is a close at break even. Support = targets = 117.5, 116, 114.
Long Ride Aid Corporation at the open Friday – Bullish pattern known as a Morning Star although I have to admit the first green candle after the doji should have been a bit larger to classify as a real morningstar…I’m out if it sets a Lower Low. Target = +10%.
Long Snapchat – based on this pattern that I expect to play out. Fundamentally, Snapchat is one of the most overvalued stocks in my opinion. But I do want to play the technical patterns as mentioned before.
Short Facebook, broke down rising wedge, currently retests previous support, for now, it failed to close above, and often this leads to a sell off if close above support fails. Secondly, two days in a row, it formed weak upside candles and so far a Lower High. The positive is that it formed the Highest close last Friday, the bigger Trend is still positive (Higher Lows and Higher Highs) and clearly the stock is in demand compared to the general market. After the expected downtrend of 5-10%, this is one of the stocks I would like to buy again. But first a short based on the rising wedge and a break out to the downside.
Short Gold – Facing resistance, Formed a Shooting Star and a doji, Lower High, 1225 retest next?
Frequent readers know I’m packed with Gold and Silver coins, so if this Trade does not work out and Gold breaks above 1250, I still make money. This short trade in CFD’s is for a quick win.
Long Oil – forming several hammer candle sticks (bullish) and a bullish engulfing last Friday. It also look like wave 3 down, wave 4 up and wave 5 down (Lower Low) was formed and so I expect 50 for a retest. Stop loss below the Low of Wednesday.
RWE – Sold early last week, currently at a 2% loss, short position not working so far, so if Monday, it breaks and closes above resistance, I will close this trade.
As mentioned last week, I sold 50% of my Bitcoin position @1150 and this week I invested 30% of that cash in Ethereum (wallet, no CFD, want the real stuff) @ 36 and 40, currently roughly 50, so up 30%. Profitable switch so far. Long term investment.
Current positions in Portfolio
Bank of America – Shorted the Highs after a Shooting Star was formed @ 25.27, currently at a profit of 8.5%, changed the trailing stop to 4%, so guaranteed profits locked in of 4.5%. Last Friday, it formed a Hammer candle stick, also called a Hanging Man, could indicate upwards pressure.
Apple – still in short position, formed a Bearish Engulfing on Tuesday, waiting for the break down < support @ 140, if that breaks, 2nd support (target) @ 132.50 = 6%, 3rd target 127.5.
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Watchlist for this week
These stocks show either a Bearish CandleStick Pattern (SELL) or a Bullish CandleStick Pattern (BUY)
What I will do is check on Monday and see if I can find a nice entry to Buy or Sell the following stocks for a return of at least 3%. If it’s 3% in the money, then I will set the trailing stop at 3%, so break even. That’s the plan that I want to execute for the next couple of months in the PatternTrader11 account at eToro.
BUY = Bullish Englfing, Hammer, Morning Star, Bullish Harami, Three White Soldiers, Bullish Piercing Line, Bullish Belt Hold, inverted Hammer
P – Bullish Engulfing
PBR – Rounding Bottom, would not surprise me to see it going up this week.
FTR Hammer and Bullish Engulfing, a gap up would make sense to me.
CNC – Bullish Engulfing
SELL: – if these 4 stocks show bearish price reaction early next week, a short position is the way to go.
THE TREND IS OUR FRIEND STRATEGY
S&P500 is at a SuperTrend Sell signal < 2401 forming a Rounding Top. Needs to form a Higher High to put the Bears back in their cage. For now, I still expect 2300 first, maybe 2200, but then Higher Highs > 2400.
DAX is still on a Long signal > 11.800. But be aware of the Cup and Handle Pattern.
VIX AND USA MARKETS – VIX on a BUY, DJI, SP500 and Nasdaq on a SELL.
These Trades will be executed in my 2nd account:
- Wait for a Lower High and a new Sell in the SuperTrend –> action = short
- Wait for a Higher Low and a new Buy in the SuperTrend –> action = long
For example, the S&P500 formed a Lower High and this was confirmed by a new Sell of the SuperTrend indicator = short position, stop loss at close > previous High (2401) or at SuperTrend key level (2380).
Click here to read more about my Two Strategies: Contrarian vs Trend following.
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The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:
- Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
- The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
- The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.
Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:
Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time”