Weekend Update – S&P500, Bitcoin and Ethereum – Time to Sell?



Hi all,

I wanted to make a video for this weekend’s update, but it seems it’s a challenge when you have a young boy next to you screaming for attention. So today will be a written analysis of the S&P500, Bitcoin and Ethereum. I will start with the Weekly Chart of the S&P500 and throughout the day I will add several other interesting charts that could provide direction to trade on for this week.

Feel free to ask questions and enjoy the day!

Cheers!

Edwin.

ps 1. During the week, I will share my analysis on my eToro feed, where I execute two strategies: Cryptocurrencies (PatternTrader11) and US stocks (EdwinVandenBerg). Feel free to sign up for a free account and receive real time trades and analysis.

ps 2. If you don’t prefer the free account at eToro, then feel free to check in now and then at the “Charts & Trading Ideas” section where I will re-post some of my analysis.

ps3. Feel free to connect with me on Social Media to exchange ideas and stay informed: Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn. Or sign up for the Email notification below.



 

S&P500 Weekly Chart


To me it seems like the S&P500 is close to a major High in the 2500 area.

The chart tells the story…

I see no reason to buy this market. I could be wrong, but sell on strength seems to be the strategy to follow.


Same chart but now including the RSI, CM and Squeeze indicator. No reason to buy this market now.

S&P500 Daily Charts


S&P500 Daily Elliott Wave and a Bullish Harami

Either the High is formed (v of III, see weekly chart) or we get one more push up to finish this wave III up.

S&P500 Rising Wedge

Price closed below support and fell out of the rising wedge. The first retest to close above failed. Normally, when a rising wedge breaks out to the downside, the retest of previous support (now resistance 2455) should be sold.

The RSI is showing a Lower Low, while Price still forms a Higher Low, indicating a Positive Reversal in progress and this might indicate a new attack on 2455 as a new attempt to close above the trendline and inside the rising wedge again.

It will be interesting to see what happens on Monday: a relief rally, so back above 2455, or a break below 2430?

Summed up:

A break above 2455 and bulls are back in control

A break below 2430 and bears are in the lead

Neutral between 2430-2455

 

S&P500 4h chart


2460 proved support 4x, so now it would make sense to so it form hard resistance.

2435 is a key level to keep an eye on, a break below activates 2410.

Bitcoin Weekly & Ethereum Daily Chart


Bitcoin Weekly Chart

BTC is trying to get back above the parabolic price curve. I would make sense to see a pullback, shake out some late entrants, and surge to Higher Highs > $5.000.-  I always have cash on the side to add cryptos in case a Higher low is formed. I took some profit on Bitcoin, and now I will wait for a new buying opportunity and use the 30% cash position. I will buy the dip, at least as long as BTC trades above $3500 and $3200. Those are key levels I keep my eye on…

Ethereum Daily Chart


Ethereum could retest 235-280 area and if so, then I will use that opportunity to add coins. I will also buy the break out > 320. I do not short cryptos, too risky in my view. With 35% of my coins in wallet, I buy, sell higher and wait for new opportunities to add coins. The other 65% is for the long run (5 to 10 years, buy and hold).

 

A break above 316 and it could go fast though…

 

Bonus Charts


S&P500 Cycles: AUG 11-SEP 3

 

S&P500 monthly Chart – from the latest special Report “Why The S&P500 Could Crash and the VIX Surge

Seasonalities of the S&P500 – Years that end with a 7 are tricky…see purple line. Bearish bias August, Bullish bias September….October…well, that seems pretty clear.

Nasdaq and S&P500 Pattern – History rhymes…

 

 

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