Weekend Update – S&P500, Nasdaq, Bitcoin and VIX


 

 

 


 


Hi all,

In this weekend update I have several interesting charts and patterns to share that could show us the road to take for the next couple of weeks. I also found a lot of amazing charts on the web and social media and these will be added to the weekend update.

During the week, I will share my analysis and trading updates on my trading feed. My 1st account EdwinVandenBerg will be used to trade the US and European stock markets. For the Crypto Trades, I use my 2nd account PatternTrader11. Sign up for a free account et eToro  and follow my trades. 

My bond portfolio (short sovereign EU bonds – The Real Bubble Trade) is a flatliner, not much happening yet…but I’m in no rush at all as this is a long term trading idea and a hedge against rising interest rates.

My portfolio at Poloniex (cryptocurrencies) is up >400% (madness, sometimes I wonder if it isn’t the next Tulip Mania) since the start of 2017. I used the recent bounce to go to cash and now I wait for a new opportunity to buy Bitcoin, Dash, Ripple, Zcash and Ethereum.

Enjoy the charts below and your weekend!

Cheers!

Edwin.


 

The next 20 images might be shocking, as it warns us for something we haven’t seen in a while….

a 5% correction for the S&P500?

 

 

 


Fear and Greed back to Extreme Greed


 


+


 

 

 

 


I compared the Fear and Greed with the Highs and Lows of the S&P500 (till SEP 20).

Extreme Greed is often followed by weakness in the markets.

Extreme Fear is a Buy the Dip Moment.


 

 

 

 



Something about Oct 2/3….seems to be relevant every 30 years? 


 

 



 

 

 

 


The Seasonal Pattern for the S&P500 showed a bias up for September. Check!

The purple line shows the S&P500 in the 7th year of a decade and indicates October might show a bearish move coming into the 3rd week of October.



 

 

 

 

 


Seasonal Pattern for the DJIA…same story, bearish move is expected based on seasonalities.


 


 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 


S&P500 Charts


I published this idea 4 days ago on my eToro trading feed, indicating we could see some more upside into early October after which a corrective wave could unfold.


 


So far, the pattern is working out as before, but we need a quick reverse to the downside or else the S&P500 breaks out to the upside.

Short term, keep an eye on the 2520, 2500 and 2480.

The red scenario is my preferred one. We’ll find out soon enough 🙂


 


 


 

 

 


S&P500 Squeeze indicator

Currently on a SELL signal and facing resistance from the trend channel @ 2520.


 


 

 

+500

 

 


S&P500 vs VIX

The RSI of the VIX shows a Positive Reversal, an indication VIX could rise. Calculated Target  if it breaks the 10 to the upside: 17.80.

The right side is the cash index of the S&P500, showing a 1,2,3 topping pattern….same pattern, same outcome?


 

 

 

 


Nasdaq


This was the idea 4 days ago, published on my eToro trading feed.


 

 

 


It did bounce up, currently facing resistance again.

A break below the bright green line (support) and it could get messy quickly.



 

 

 


Nasdaq Pattern 2 – Red Box in progress


 

 


Bitcoin


My view from 3 days ago:


Long term, I’m still very bullish on Bitcoin.

Short term, I follow this pattern, wave c up in progress?

I would like to buy the dip, 2800-3200


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