The 5 Patterns That Keep Me Up @ Night & Total Portfolio Update
In this update, I want to share the 5 charts that keep me up at night and how I prepare my portfolio for a turbulent 2018.
Total Portfolio Strategy:
If you want to read more about my Total Investment Strategy, then please read this update first: 2017 Performance and Total Portfolio.
This is what I will do over the next couple of weeks/months:
- I will add monthly to a mutual fund (worldwide stocks), as I expect stocks to double into the year 2030, peak of flight to private assets;
- I will add 2% of my assets to buy put spreads AEX Dec 2018, as a hedge for my equity exposure, medium term trade (12-24 months, 2018-2019);
- I will add 7% of my assets to to my 2018-2019 eToro hedge strategy;
- I will contribute small amounts to interesting ICO’s and tokens that pay out a periodic cash flow;
- I decreased my crypto exposure from 20% of total assets to 5% of total assets;
- I will add to my short sovereign bond strategy (rising interest rates) when rates come down a bit into 2018.
Let’s take a look at the 5 charts that keep me up at night.
Nr. 1 – Nikkei225 1990 vs S&P500 today
The left side of the chart shows the Nikkei225 over the period 1986-1990. As you can see, the purple arrow was followed by a rising wedge, and resolved with a break to the upside –> vertical market into the red ellipse.
On the right side, we see the S&P500 since the 2016 low. Just like the Nikkei225 pattern, the S&P500 formed a rising wedge after the purple arrow and price broke out to the upside, going vertical. Once the vertical move is done, expect gravity to kick back in and continue the pattern –> 1st test of blue support @ 2200 during Q2 / Q3 of 2018.
Nr. 2 – DJI 1987 vs DJI today
A break below 24.000 confirms the pattern we saw before, right before the infamous 1987 crash.
Sell < 24.000.
Nr. 3 – DJI 2004-2009 vs DJI today
The final surge up, a 77 degree angle, is in progress. Keep an eye on the following key levels: 25.000 / 23.000 / 21.000.
Nr. 4 – Oil -9 years vs DJI today
Same Pattern, Same Outcome?
Nr. 5 – Silver 2006 vs Bitcoin today
Crypto Rating Desk and our ICO Portfolio of 100
ps. I started a new project, for and by my international students.
We analyze upcoming ICO’s and when we see a project that we like, we contribute. Our latest contribution is TokenPay.
We now have 11 contributions, and our goal is to build a portfolio of 100 tokens that generate a periodic cash flow (Portfolio of 100).
Feel free to follow our ideas: CryptoRatingDesk.com