Chart Of The Week!

Technical Analysis and Trading Ideas





Start Your Week, With The Chart Of The Week!

This is a collection of my ideas and the charts that I come across on Social Media.

Whenever I have time, then I will post a chart that I find interesting to share. The more detailed updates, that need more explanation, will be posted on the homepage (blog).

Feel free to ask questions in the comments below (click on the bubble next to the headline of this page) or connect with me on Social Media: Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter to receive notifications when I post a new update.






FEB 12 – Amazon Weekly Fractal – More Upside To Come?


Click here for the full Trading Update in which I discuss the DJI, Bitcoin, Apple, AMD, Amazon and Crude Oil into detail and what to expect for the next couple of days, weeks and months ahead based on historical patterns, fractals and cycles/seasonality.






FEB 7 – DJI Monthly Chart – Green Scenario vs 1987 – Full Report HERE




FEB 5 – AMD Weekly Chart – Sell the $12-$17 for Target $5 after 2019


There are two periods that show a similar pattern for AMD: 2009-2015 (blue) and 1983-1989 (black). In both cases, it formed a Triple Top Pattern and price retraced the complete uptrend.

Fast forward to today’s chart: if history repeats, then this stock will fall more than 50% in value within the next couple of years.

Based on these patterns, I will sell the $12-$17 area for Target Prices: $10, $8 and $5.




FEB 5 – Apple Weekly Pattern – Bounce Up Before The Sell Off Continues?



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FEB 4 – Apple Fractal Pattern – Bounce Up Before The Sell Off Continues?


If we’ll see a bounce back up this week, then I will use that opportunity to sell Apple, the DJI, Nasdaq and S&P500 and I will add to my Put Spreads AEX March 2018 and long VIX.



 

 

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FEB 3 – Weekend Update February 3 – US Stock Markets & Cryptos – Click on the link to Download the Report


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FEB 2 – Bitcoin vs Gold


I had to modify my view on BTC, as it broke through the lows sooner than expected. After several hours of puzzling, I returned to my original fractal pattern, Gold vs BTC.

If BTC keeps tracking this fractal pattern of Gold, then early February could see a bounce up, followed by lower lows into end of February.



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JAN 31 – Apple Bounce Back Up Before The Sell Off Continues?


January 21, I mentioned that Apple showed a pattern that could lead to a sell off. And indeed, after touching the $180 level, Apple sold off to $166 (-7%).

Now, a bounce up would fit the pattern before the sell off continues…



 


JAN 31 – DJI 1987 Topping Patterns – Gap Down & Surge Up (2x)


Let’s start with a chart that shows my 2 main scenarios for the DJI: green and red.

The green scenario assumes a correction of 10% followed by another parabolic surge up. The red scenario assumes we’re at the start of the famous 1987 crash.

Whether it’s the green or red scenario that plays out, they both have something in common that is very interesting to share and it might provide a road map for the next couple of days, see 2nd chart below.



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JAN 31 – DJI 1987 – 2nd chart – 1) Gap Down, 2) Surge Up, 3) Correction.


In both scenarios (red or green) we see the DJI gapping down at the open (blue box) after which a surge up to new highs unfolded.

In today’s market, we see the same: the DJI is gapping down. If these patterns repeat, then a DJI of 27.000 could be next.

I closed some of my short positions at eToro in anticipation of this final surge up. I also took a small long position (CFD’s and Call Options) at Plus500 (higher leverage possible and the opportunity to trade options) to play this final surge up. I will load up on short positions & put spreads if the DJI fits the pattern I just described.



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JAN 30 – Bitcoin 4h Fractal Forecast

Assumption: History Will Rhyme


My Plan:

1) If BTC retests $10.000 – 10.500 area, I will add to my trading position (long). I’m out of my trading position if BTC sets a lower low

2) If BTC is able to break out above $12.000, then I will add to my long position and I will also add on a possible retest/higher low after the break out.

I have a bullish view as long as the low of January holds. 




JAN 29 – Gann Date JAN 27 – Change In Trend Coming?



Tight Spreads and 5x Leverage on Cryptocurrencies 


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JAN 29 – Bitcoin 4h Fractal – Bearish Pressure Into Early Feb? – Higher Low > $10.000 – Then February Surge To $17.000?



 


JAN 29 – DJI Weekly Chart- Two Main Scenarios (Green and Red) – Back to the 80’s!



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JAN 29 – Green Forecast worked out pretty fine – Bitcoin 1h Chart Forecast (blue)




JAN 26 – BTC 15 minutes Forecast (light blue)



JAN 26 – BTC 3 minute – Forecast – Short term Buy Opportunity coming 10:00 CET



JAN 26 – BTC 15 minutes Forecast (light blue)




 

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JAN 26 – BTC 15 minutes 

Major Resistance from Red and Black Trends


 

If it breaks $12.000 to the upside, it could go fast.


 

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JAN 26 – BTC 15 minutes fractal forecast (light blue)



 


JAN 25 – Weekly EURUSD Fractal Pattern – Currently in Sell Area

I entered a small short position Plus500, Leverage 300x. I will add more on weakness (if possible).

Positive side note: I receive a daily premium for keeping shorts EURUSD Plus500


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JAN 25 – BTC 2017 correction tested 50% fibonacci, same as 2018 correction –> Fibo 50% = $10.850, see 2nd chart


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BTC 2018 correction, after parabolic move up, support found at 50% Fibonacci (so far).

A break below $10.000 is a warning for the bulls that $8.800 could be sooner than expected.

A break above $13.000 triggers a retest of $15.000.

 


JAN 25 – Short Oil @66, 1/4, medium term trade @ eToro, Leverage 5x


I will add short positions (3/4) in the $66-$70 area, for target $60-$58.

Overnight fee for holding a short position at eToro: + 0.8% per week –> cash inflow for me, that adds up to 10% per quarter.

 

 JAN 25 – Gold to break out?

 

 

 

 

 

JAN 24 – Long BTC, short term trade – 1m, 5m, 15minute charts @Plus500, Leverage 5x

 

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JAN 24 – Apple, Bitcoin and VIX


I found these charts on Twitter from @ECantoni, a very interesting analyst to follow. Check this out!


Bitcoin following the same pattern as 2013-2014 period?

If so, that would imply a retest of 17k next and then another drop will start, that will last several weeks/months to form a low in the $5.000-$8.000 area.



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This pattern shows the risk for being long Apple. Also, see my analysis on Apple (JAN 23, scroll down) that shows a similar outcome, a drop of 25% is coming.




VIX could explode to 40, if history repeats.


 

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JAN 23 – Bitcoin vs Silver Pattern


So far, Bitcoin follows the Silver pattern, like clockwork.

Today, BTC formed a higher low, just like the Silver pattern before. This was the 2nd buy opportunity to play the strategy to buy 1 BTC with $3.000, scroll down to JAN 19.

If we continue the same Silver road, then $13k-15k is next (Sell Opportunity 2).

 

 


JAN 23 – Apple Weekly Chart – Bearish Divergence RSI



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JAN 20, 2018


Bitcoin is still following the pattern of Silver, almost like clockwork.

Next step in the playbook would be to reach S1, the 1st Selling Opportunity after buying nr. 12.



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JAN 19, 2018 Bitcoin 1h chart: I bought the dip as I noticed Bullish Divergence RSI, a volume spike and a possible inverted SHS pattern. If BTC breaks 12k, I will add some more for a short term trade to target 15k.



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JAN 19, 2018 – I bought Bitcoin at $9.700 JAN 17, target $13.000+ and I bought protection yesterday in the form of puts on the AEX (Dutch stock market), 3% out of the money, maturity FEB 14 via Plus500

It has been a while that I have been really active with options, so I will start slow ($500 deposit).


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Basic Strategy/Outlook:

For Bitcoin, I expect a sideways pattern, bouncing between $10.000 – $13.000 area for a couple of weeks. Then plunge. And a great opportunity to get back to overweight long for $100.000 in 3 years.

For stocks I am very bullish long term, next decade Dow 100k+ Short term, I see some bears ahead: a drop, dead cat bounce followed by a larger drop fits my main pattern for the next couple of weeks/months.

I’m short Sovereign Bonds = Long 5y and 10y interest rates. Interest rates will double, at least, over the next decade.


 

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JAN 19, 2018


Based on the pattern of Silver, it’s possible to set up a BTC trading strategy:

Long BTC @10k, Short BTC @ 13k (2x) and then Long BTC @ 8k

Start with $3.000 (0.25 BTC) and if the pattern plays out, it has grown to 1 bitcoin (summer 2018).

Total investment $3.000 for 1 BTC. Possible reward in 3 years? Who knows?


Buy 10 & Sell 13 Sell 13 & Buy 10 Buy 10 & Sell 13 Sell 13 & Buy 8
30% 23% 30% 38%
3000 3900 4800 6240 8640
Buy 1 Bitcoin @ 8640

 


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JAN 18, 2018 Bitcoin Bounce Back Up To $13.000? 


I don’t see any problem of Robots taking over our jobs…in fact, in a couple of years it’s needed for this to happen as we will all become Bitcoin millionaires and say goodbye to our day jobs 😉
 
That sounds like a free world…people will become able to step out of the system…where does that put government’s and corporation’s control over society?
 
If only this pattern keeps aligning, then we can all become rich (in $ value, not referring to richness/quality of life itself :)).

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HashFlare – 1 year Cloud Mining Contracts BTC, ETH, ZCash – Expected ROI 165%


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JAN 17, 2018 Hanging Man Weekly Chart in progress..



 

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JAN 17, 2018 – Bitcoin Bounce Back Up To $13.000 Area? 



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JAN 17, 2018: Gold vs Silver vs Bitcoin Parabolic Pattern


If the Gold Pattern is the primary one, then we could see a bounce up from $10k to the previous lower high @ 17k.

The Silver Pattern expects a drop into the 8k area, for a bounce up to 13k.

For a more detailed analysis of the Silver Parabolic Pattern, then please check out this post on the homepage: Bitcoin 10k or 18k? 




 


JAN 15, 2018 DAX Weekly Chart


Weekly uptrend is still intact > 13.000. 

Keep an eye on the following key levels:

  • 13.150, a break below 13.150 activates 13.000, which is key support for this uptrend.
  • 13.400, a break above 13.400 triggers 13.800/14.200.

 



 

 



 

 


HashFlare – 1 year Cloud Mining Contracts BTC, ETH, ZCash – Expected ROI 165%


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JAN 14, 2018 Gold Silver and the new Gold: Bitcoin


Gold Higher Low Weekly Chart, facing mid resistance now. A break > 1400 activates 1500.

Silver Higher Low Weekly Chart.

Bitcoin – Two scenarios: Gold or Silver –>

Gold Pattern = 10k – 17k – 10k – 17k – 6k

Silver Pattern = 8k – 13k – 8k – 13k – 6k



 

 

 

 


 

 

8 Responses

  1. XIA WANG says:

    Hi, Edwin! Thank you! You are right, A man can not always understand why something happans. Find trends and the right model and then follow it. That is the right way. I saw your updated chart about Bitcoin. It seems not like Silver model. (15k -10 – 13- 8k) So we can only allow time to test, what it will happen.

    • Edwin van den Berg says:

      Hi Xia, The Silver model says 10k this week = check!, then up to S2: 13k+ in progress to S2 – 10k for Buy 3 (see chart) – then up to 13k Sell 3 – then a longer term drop to 8k = Buy Buy Buy…so far it matches perfectly. What is it that you see differently?
      I also uploaded a new chart on this page, shows the BTC 2017 correction, finding a low at 50% fibonacci retracement. BTC did the same so far, testing fib0 50% at $10.000. Now, the real question will be: what will happen in the $13k-$15k area? That will be really important for BTC: a break above triggers 17k but if BTC is unable to break above resistance area, then it will go back to 10k. So I will use these levels to determine what to do: 10k – 13k/15k – 17k.

    • Edwin van den Berg says:

      Here’s the silver model: http://tripstrading.com/2018/01/22/bitcoin-gold-16-000-silver-10-000/
      I will update the charts today/tomorrow!

  2. Edwin van den Berg says:

    Hi all!

    Feel free to ask questions if you have any!

    Enjoy the day!

    Cheers!
    Edwin.

    • XIA WANG says:

      Hi Edwin, what do you think about US Dollor? Why is it so low? Is this a precursor to a stock market crash? Because i see that in the crash of 2008 and 2000 US Dollor rides high and quick.

      • Edwin van den Berg says:

        Hi Xia! Normally, if there’s a panic move, capital flees into the USD, as safe haven currency. And correct, that’s what happened in 2000 and 2008. But today is not comparable to 2000 or 2008 as I believe the 1980’s resemble today’s period…quick corrections instead of a longer term one. Other thing is, in 2000 and 2008 interest rates weren’t this low…the bond market is the real bubble and at the moment US interest rates are breaking out to the upside. That will likely lead to investors selling US Treasury Bonds, which could have a negative impact on the USD.

        And so I could think of more reasons why this/why that. It’s always a guestimate as I never have all the information.

        But usually when I see so much coverage on a weak USD in the media, then I think a reversal is close. What do you think?

        • XIA WANG says:

          I really dont understand. Interest is rising, tax reform is in progress and the dollar needs to be reflowed. These are all goods for the dollar, but he never stopped falling. I lost a lot of money, I feel bad.

          • Edwin van den Berg says:

            Hi XIa,

            Tax rfeform will lead to massive debt increase, could be negative for USD. Everything can be explained in 3 ways: bullish, bearish, neutral.

            Ten years ago, I stopped explaining everything for myself…why this and why that. It is simply not possible for a human being to interpret all the data correct and understand why something happened. The only thing that matters is capital flow, that has an impact on prices. So I mainly focus on prices, patterns, cycles and correlations.

            One of the patterns is showing a possible top for the EURUSD over the next couple of weeks and we could visit EURUSD = 1 at the end of 2018. See chart I just posted on this page. I never traded the EURUSD, but today I entered the 1st small short position based on this pattern.

            Cheers!

            Edwin.

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