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This page contains my Trading Ideas and examples from the Market Report that I publish every morning on my eToro feed. Whenever I have time, I will repost those updates here, (scroll down).
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Charts & Updates
SPX, Nasdaq, DAX, Apple, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Oil and whatever is interesting to share!
S&P500 Elliott Wave projection…bearish into October….currently several overlapping waves, abcde up, uptrend is getting exhausted…a break below 2430 confirms this scenario
S&P500 short term view, 4h chart, inverted Shoulder Head Shoulder in progress. A break above neckline 2470/80 activates target 2510.
Short term bullish pattern > 2460.
Several charts that I made and shared over the last couple of days (eToro and Twitter).
Apple trade was closed at a nice profit.
Short Term S&P500 Cycles point to AUG 2, 11,14,17 and major cycle time window (70, 140, 280 day cycle) AUG 21-27
The chart below assumes a copy of the blue pattern we saw before, during June. History might not repeat, but it sure does rhyme!
Main take away from this chart –> major cycle time window AUG 21-27, for either a long term High 2505 or short term Low 2450
I have some short term exposure (long Apple, Amazon and DAX) to profit from one more wave up. I also started building a short portfolio (SPX, Nasdaq, DJI and long VIX) for a multimonth sell off….short term vs medium term trades.
The last time I discussed the DAX (Uptrend Under Pressure) I showed these two charts. The left side is the weekly chart and the right side is the daily chart. In that update, I mentioned that the DAX would likely retest previous support in the 12.600 area, after which a sell off to 12k support area could unfold. So far, it’s been pretty much spot on. There’s not much to get excited about (as a bull), as bears seem to be in control for now. The retest to trade back inside the green uptrend failed and a sell off emerged. Target seems to be the red arrow, a retest of 12.000.
Resistance is at 12.400-450 (previous support) and 12.600-700. Support could be expected in the 11.800-12.000 area (weekly and daily chart) and 11.600 (daily chart). A drop of 2-5% seems to be in the stars, and could be a new short term buying opportunity into 3rd week of August (purple and orange scenario for the S&P500, see update below), after which a bigger correction could unfold into the ECB meeting of October….
First things first, let’s see what happen this week at the 12k support area…
The last time I discussed the S&P500, “S&P500 – Rising Wedge & Next Cycle Time Window” I showed the main pattern of price: a rising wedge. For the past week, price managed to trade near the upper trendline of the wedge, an area where the risk:return for short term sell positions are becoming attractive. The daily candle sticks formed two hanging man in a row, a bearish reversal pattern, and signals a short term top could be formed.
As mentioned in the latest analysis of the S&P500, I have three main scenarios:
The purple scenario assumes a retest 2430-40 and one more push up into August.
The orange scenario, also a copy of previous price behavior, assumes a more sideways trend, 2440, and then a quick surge up into August.
The blue scenario becomes valid if the S&P500 breaks down out of the wedge and 2430 fails to hold as support. Not there yet, for now the purple and orange scenario seem most likely to me. The scenario that I’m not accounting for is a steady rise into August, sticking firmly to the upper blue trendline, no dip to buy. Expect the unexpected….
My short term plan is to sell the 2478-2530, buy the 2430-40 (SL 2429) and sell < 2430. Medium term, keep an eye on the lower boundary of the rising wedge…currently at 2430 for this week. Once the lower boundary of the rising wedge breaks, it could go fast…
Left Top – Spread between USDJPY and SPX has widened, 3.8%..would make sense for both lines to connect again…short SPX vs long USDJPY?
Right Top – Spread between DAX (blue) and Nasdaq (red)/SPX (black) has widened to 5% since the Draghi speech last Thursday. Long EU vs short USA to anticipate convergence again?
I’m still figuring out how to make the best use out of the divergences (as it says a lot about money flow) so be careful copying these trading ideas blindly. For now, I do not trade these divergences, I simply take it into account, learn from it and work on a strategy.
FTSE100 facing resistance from trendline
I found this chart on the eToro feed, showing the DJI during the famous 1987 crash compared to the current pattern.
We all have seen charts like this before and no one knows if history will repeat, but it sure does look like so far.
S&P500 Daily Chart – Wedge Up – Bearish Reversal once it breaks…
Oil Weekly Chart and 4h chart
I’m with the Pessimists for the Short/Medium Term, Weekly Bearish Reversal Candlestick
Long Term, I’m still Bullish (Flight to Private Assets, into equities and out of Sovereign Bonds)