S&P500 – Three Bearish Reversal Candlesticks

Hi all,

Last week, equity markets around the globe gapped up on the news of the French elections. I do find it interesting that the expectation was for a victory of Macron and LePen and then when the outcome is as expected, markets surge. Something about the irrelevance of the news right?

Probably too many were short positioned, and based on the assumption that it’s a zero sum game and the crowd can not be correct, then the surge can be explained. True or not, it is what it is and the market does what it wants. Bulls scream buy buy buy to new All time High. Bears claim this is a Lower High and the crash is about to start. I’m in the middle, bearish for the short term (May, June) and bullish for the longer term (>Q3 2017).



Trump’s tax plan turned out to be a buy the rumor, sell the news item. I did not understand the enthusiasm about the tax plan and I still don’t. Somehow, the government has to fund this tax break, as empirical evidence shows it does not add real value to economic growth. And since the US government (as any other government) is practically bankrupt, I wonder how this will all end up like a good thing. For one group

I do think that the current events all lead up to the point that the artificial low interest rates are not sustainable, and rates will revert back to the mean. In the end, everything turns back to its mean. In time. If that is the case, that rates revert back to the mean, it implies EU rates at 4% or higher. That’s an increase of 100% from current levels and for some countries even more. How do you think that’s gonna turn out? The bond market will be a bloodbath and a trillion of investment products will face severe value changes as they are pegged to interest rates.

I’m in the corner of Armstrong, and expect a flight out of public assets (government bonds) and into private assets (equities) for the next couple of years.


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Looking back at April, I’m up 1.4% for the month, a bit above target of 1% per month, so can’t complain, but I’m not satisfied about all of my trades, of course, with hindsight. Several (candlestick) patterns played out nicely (Snapchat, Nielsen, Bank of America) while others failed so far (Home Depot, Tesla, Facebook). The cryptocurrencies performed very well, Bitcoin added value to my total portfolio as well Ethereum which I bought at $36-$40, currently near the $70 level, doubling my investment in a month. I am aware of the fact that it could be gone in a blink of an eye, so I “only” invested 3k in cryptocurrencies. If it drops to 0 overnight, it will be a sad loss, but I will survive 😉

For the month of May, I’m targeting a 2%-3% return as I expect a lot of volatility and an increased probability of reaching my target prices that are at least 5% from current prices. So a 2-3% return should be possible (no leverage).

Now, let’s take a look at the stock market, and in particular my favorite market, the S&P500. The latest video update can be found here and the latest update on Crude Oil can be read here.

Enjoy your weekend!


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WEEKLY CHART S&P500


During March 2017, the S&P500 broke the major trendline to the downside and this week it tried to close back above. Of course, it depends on how tight you draw your lines to make the statement that it closed below or above for this week but based on how I drew the line, it closed below (subjective nature of technical analysis).

Regardless of the trendline, based on the weekly time frame, a bearish view is valid as long as it is not able to break > 2400. For the medium term, it formed a Lower High as it was not able to break the 2400 that was marked in February 2017. A break > 2400 means the S&P500 is back above the green trendline, forms another Higher High, continues the long term uptrend and this last corrective pattern was simply to form a Higher Low and not the start of a corrective wave (yet). I do have an important cycle date scheduled for May 8-14, so it might indicate that we’re close to a High on the weekly time frame. I simply see to much patterns popping up as so often right before a downtrend of 5%-10%.

Sell in May and go away, but remember to come back in September?

For the week, it gapped up and formed a Higher Low and a Higher High. Sooner or later, gaps will be closed. Could be the week after or it may take some time, but a gap is there to be closed.

If it is able to close above the green trendline @ 2400, then 2410 is next level to break.


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DAILY CHART S&P500


Candlestick Patterns – For the 3rd day in a row, the S&P500 forms a Bearish Reversal Pattern. On Wednesday, it formed an inverted hammer, Thursday a Hanging Man and Friday a Bearish Engulfing. Could it be more obvious? Or is this the game they play…make people believe it’s topping, so we enter shorts and it’s only meant as fuel for the bulls? Mind games….For now, the last three days showed signs of topping, a market that’s getting exhausted, not able yet to break to new All Time Highs. There’s still time left though, as I expect the major change in Trend somewhere in the cycle time window May 8-14.

My expectation is a retest of support at 2360-70, bounce up 2390 mid May, retest support 2340-50, resistance 2360, 1st Target area 2270-2300. Keep in mind that this scenario line is just my own desire, projection, thoughts, so not something to trade on. Trade the numbers, not the opinions. And the numbers say I should be biased short < 2400 for the short term. Long term, I’m extremely bullish on stocks, as I explained before that the real bubble is the government bond market in my view.

SuperTrend – On a Buy since it broke the 2370 to the upside. Stays a long if the close > 2370. New sell if close < 2370.

Cycles – Based on my own developed Cyclical Model, the power of 7(0), I end up with the following dates: April 27 (91 day cycle, short term High?), May 3, May 8-14. So keep an eye on these dates for a change in Trend (High or Low). May 12, full moon. Bradley Model dates: April 29, June 21.


SPX vs VIX


Target Prices – The pattern that I’m following here is the Rounding Top S&P500 and the Rounding Bottom VIX, explained in this video. Based on this pattern, I would not be surprised to see VIX gapping up again and reach the 1st target of 14 and eventually the 2nd target of 17-18 during May and June.

For the S&P500, the main targets are 2270-2300 and 2100-2150 based on 1) The Rounding Top, 2) Divergence with the Risk Parity Fund and 3) The divergence with Hard Economic Data and The Bond Market (see Trading Updates April 20-24).

RSI – several stock markets show Bearish Divergence, such as the S&P500, DAX and the Nasdaq, indicating a sideways pattern or downtrend to start. Uptrend is getting exhausted. For the VIX, the RSI is at a key area, will it be able to break to the upside? And I do wonder, what is the reason for VIX to form an Island Reversal Pattern and cause VIX to rise by 30%? Nothing good in my view…



Copy My Trades – If you want to follow or copy my Trades, then please click here and sign up for free!  I’m keeping track of my Trades in my account named EdwinVandenBerg.


WATCHLIST STOCKS


Buy – Bullish Engulfing:

The Gold miners…is Gold about to pop? I’m stacked with Gold and Silver coins, so would be greatm, but I’m in it for the long run. Could not really care for price changes as I keep it as an insurance against a financial implosion.

A tool to protect my assets. At least, I think it’s better than holding the EUR 🙂

Sell – Shooting Star: 

Sell – Bearish Engulfing: 

Gapping Up – Break Away or Exhaustion? French edition

Hi all,

On Monday, the French market gapped to the upside but for the last three days, it has not been able to break the High or Low of Monday. Inside days, not able to break out to the up- or downside. Usually inside days are followed by a large move once the break out occurs.

Is this the silence before the storm or are the bulls re-gaining energy?

Find out my view here. Beside France, I’ll also show my current view on the UK and USA markets and I highlight the key levels to keep an eye on for Apple.

Enjoy the day and trade safely.

Cheers,

Edwin.

Trading Updates

Hi all,

Whenever I have a specific topic that I would like to share, I will post it at the blog/homepage of this website. For example, the rounding Top in the S&P500, the rounding bottom VIX, the Cup and Handle Pattern of the DAX and of course Oil. I expect to publish one or two updates every week. If you apply for the email notification, then you will receive an email when a new article is published, see right side bar.

During the week, whenever I have time, I will share the daily updates copied from my eToro feed. I will re-post these updates on this website: Trading Updates, so feel free to check in whenever you have time to see if there’s an interesting update. For example, this morning I posted several profitable trades on the DAX and FTSE100.

Or sign up to eToro and Follow my Analysis and Real Time Trades!

Enjoy the day!

Edwin.

Latest Video Update

Hi all,

In this video I will explain why I think that a 5-10% correction is only a matter of Time (check out this pages for the cycles).

If you missed the latest Trading Update, then check it out here. There were several very interesting articles posted that might help you, for example the chart of the S&P500 vs Risk Parity Fund, claiming that the S&P500 has to catch up to 2100 to converge to the risk parity fund.

Enjoy the video below and feel free to ask questions!

Enjoy your weekend!

Cheers!
Edwin.


 


During the week, whenever I have time, I will share the daily updates copied from my eToro feed. I will re-post these updates on this website: Trading Updates, so feel free to check in whenever you have time to see if there’s an interesting update. For example, this morning I posted several profitable trades on the DAX and FTSE100.

Or sign up to eToro and Follow my Analysis and Real Time Trades!

Enjoy the day!

Edwin.

Crude Oil – I’m Selling the $52-$54 for a $49 Target

Hi all,

My current view on Oil, presented from my feed at eToro.

Click here for the update of Crude Oil dated April 9. 

Feel free to ask questions if you have any!

Enjoy the day!


 

 


I added 5 interesting pages to my website that might help you to stay informed, make more profitable trades and manage your assets.

  1. Trading Updates – During the week I will share interesting patterns and updates here, copied from my social feed at eToro.
  2. The Trend is our Friend – Dashboard of assets that I use to enter trades for the medium term.
  3. Cycle Dates – Based on my own developed cyclical model and the law of 7(0).
  4. My Strategy Explained – The 4 Tools that I use to decide to buy or sellstocks, commodities or cryptocurrencies.
  5. Invest in My Strategy – It’s possible to start copying my Trades from a low as $100. My goal is 10% per year, regardless what the market does.



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READ MORE: 


Market Update April 12 

Crude Oil – Rising Wedge

Market Update April 1

S&P500 Rounding Top and VIX Rounding Bottom

Snapchat – Are you Ready to buy? 

S&P500 Rounding Top 

Market Update – S&P500 Apple Facebook and the Banks

CryptoCurrencies – BTC and ETH crash, Buying Opportunity? 

Market Update – Candles and Trades

Rounding Tops and Bottoms – S&P500 vs VIX

The Real Bubble – Interest Rates

Arbitrage Strategy – Crude Oil vs RD Shell

Tech, Banks, Gold and Oil

S&P500 – It’s now or never



Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


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If you want to follow my Trades, then please click here and sign up for free



Do you want to create your own Dashboards? Click here and sign up!


The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 


Start Trading!


 
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The Trend is our Friend

Hi all,

I will upload the “The Trend is our Friend” dashboard every weekend on The Trend is our Friend page. Check it out now and see for yourself if your favorite asset is close to a new Buy or Sell signal.

Enjoy the day!


Furthermore, I added 5 interesting pages to my website that might help you to stay informed, make more profitable trades and manage your assets.

  1. My eToro Feed – During the week I will share interesting patterns and updates here, copied from my social feed at eToro.
  2. The Trend is our Friend – Dashboard of assets that I use to enter trades for the medium term.
  3. Cycle Dates – Based on my own developed cyclical model and the law of 7(0).
  4. My Strategy Explained – The 4 Tools that I use to decide to buy or sellstocks, commodities or cryptocurrencies.
  5. Invest in My Strategy – It’s possible to start copying my Trades from a low as $100. My goal is 10% per year, regardless what the market does.



Subscribe and stay informed!

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Copy My Trades – If you want to follow or copy my Trades, then please click here and sign up for free!  I’m keeping track of my Trades in my account named EdwinVandenBerg


READ MORE: 


Market Update April 12 

Crude Oil – Rising Wedge

Market Update April 1

S&P500 Rounding Top and VIX Rounding Bottom

Snapchat – Are you Ready to buy? 

S&P500 Rounding Top 

Market Update – S&P500 Apple Facebook and the Banks

CryptoCurrencies – BTC and ETH crash, Buying Opportunity? 

Market Update – Candles and Trades

Rounding Tops and Bottoms – S&P500 vs VIX

The Real Bubble – Interest Rates

Arbitrage Strategy – Crude Oil vs RD Shell

Tech, Banks, Gold and Oil

S&P500 – It’s now or never



Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


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Subscribe and stay informed!

Name
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If you want to follow my Trades, then please click here and sign up for free



Do you want to create your own Dashboards? Click here and sign up!


The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 


Start Trading!


 
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My Strategy Explained

Hi all,

If you would like to know more about the Tools that I use to enter Trades for the short and medium term, then feel free to check this page: My Strategy Explained. 

I’m using eToro to execute my strategy, in my account EdwinVandenBerg.

Feel free to ask questions if you have any!

Enjoy the day!

Kind regards,

Edwin.


Furthermore, I added 5 interesting pages to my website that might help you to stay informed, make more profitable trades and manage your assets.

  1. My eToro Feed – During the week I will share interesting patterns and updates here, copied from my social feed at eToro.
  2. The Trend is our Friend – Dashboard of assets that I use to enter trades for the medium term.
  3. Cycle Dates – Based on my own developed cyclical model and the law of 7(0).
  4. My Strategy Explained – The 4 Tools that I use to decide to buy or sellstocks, commodities or cryptocurrencies.
  5. Invest in My Strategy – It’s possible to start copying my Trades from a low as $100. My goal is 10% per year, regardless what the market does.



Subscribe and stay informed!

Name
Email *


+500

 


Copy My Trades – If you want to follow or copy my Trades, then please click here and sign up for free!  I’m keeping track of my Trades in my account named EdwinVandenBerg


READ MORE: 


Market Update April 12 

Crude Oil – Rising Wedge

Market Update April 1

S&P500 Rounding Top and VIX Rounding Bottom

Snapchat – Are you Ready to buy? 

S&P500 Rounding Top 

Market Update – S&P500 Apple Facebook and the Banks

CryptoCurrencies – BTC and ETH crash, Buying Opportunity? 

Market Update – Candles and Trades

Rounding Tops and Bottoms – S&P500 vs VIX

The Real Bubble – Interest Rates

Arbitrage Strategy – Crude Oil vs RD Shell

Tech, Banks, Gold and Oil

S&P500 – It’s now or never



Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


+500


Subscribe and stay informed!

Name
Email *


If you want to follow my Trades, then please click here and sign up for free



Do you want to create your own Dashboards? Click here and sign up!


The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 


Start Trading!


 
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Invest in My Strategy

Special Offer!

Start with a 5 year 10% cashflow return if you invest in my Strategy.

Special Offer for the 1st 100 new Copiers! Remaining seats: 97.

Only 7 easy steps away from copying my Trades and start with a 10% cashflow return for the 1st 5 years.

After that, the value depends on my ability to reach my annual Target of at least a 10% net return (1%/month, 2 months of no trading).

Join me now, let me manage part of your equity and start making money trading the financial markets!

Read more: 1. My Strategy Explained and 2. Invest in My Strategy and start with a 10% cashflow return for the first 5 years! 


Join the Social Trading revolution!

Connect with other traders, discuss trading strategies, and use the patented CopyTrader™ technology to automatically copy other traders.

You can start with as low as $100 and copy the best Traders with a steady return and a low risk profile.

Check out this page to read more about CopyTrading and check out this page to read more about My Strategy


Furthermore, I added 5 interesting pages to my website that might help you to stay informed, make more profitable trades and manage your assets.

  1. My eToro Feed – During the week I will share interesting patterns and updates here, copied from my social feed at eToro.
  2. The Trend is our Friend – Dashboard of assets that I use to enter trades for the medium term.
  3. Cycle Dates – Based on my own developed cyclical model and the law of 7(0).
  4. My Strategy Explained – The 4 Tools that I use to decide to buy or sellstocks, commodities or cryptocurrencies.
  5. Invest in My Strategy – It’s possible to start copying my Trades from a low as $100. My goal is 10% per year, regardless what the market does.



Subscribe and stay informed!

Name
Email *


+500

 


Copy My Trades – If you want to follow or copy my Trades, then please click here and sign up for free!  I’m keeping track of my Trades in my account named EdwinVandenBerg


READ MORE: 


Market Update April 12 

Crude Oil – Rising Wedge

Market Update April 1

S&P500 Rounding Top and VIX Rounding Bottom

Snapchat – Are you Ready to buy? 

S&P500 Rounding Top 

Market Update – S&P500 Apple Facebook and the Banks

CryptoCurrencies – BTC and ETH crash, Buying Opportunity? 

Market Update – Candles and Trades

Rounding Tops and Bottoms – S&P500 vs VIX

The Real Bubble – Interest Rates

Arbitrage Strategy – Crude Oil vs RD Shell

Tech, Banks, Gold and Oil

S&P500 – It’s now or never



Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


+500


Subscribe and stay informed!

Name
Email *


If you want to follow my Trades, then please click here and sign up for free



Do you want to create your own Dashboards? Click here and sign up!


The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 


Start Trading!


 
+500

S&P500 – Next Cycle Time Windows

Hi all,

I just updated my cyclical  model  for April and May 2017 and the outcomes are published on this page – Cycle Dates. Seems that after APR 3-7, MAY 8-14 and mid June are likely the Time Windows in which a change in Trend/start new Cycle is triggered.

Furthermore, I added 5 interesting pages to my website that might help you to stay informed, make more profitable trades and manage your assets.

  1. My eToro Feed – During the week I will share interesting patterns and updates here, copied from my social feed at eToro.
  2. The Trend is our Friend – Dashboard of assets that I use to enter trades for the medium term.
  3. Cycle Dates – Based on my own developed cyclical model and the law of 7(0).
  4. My Strategy Explained – The 4 Tools that I use to decide to buy or sellstocks, commodities or cryptocurrencies.
  5. Invest in My Strategy – It’s possible to start copying my Trades from a low as $100. My goal is 10% per year, regardless what the market does.



Subscribe and stay informed!

Name
Email *


+500

 


Copy My Trades – If you want to follow or copy my Trades, then please click here and sign up for free!  I’m keeping track of my Trades in my account named EdwinVandenBerg


READ MORE: 


Market Update April 12 

Crude Oil – Rising Wedge

Market Update April 1

S&P500 Rounding Top and VIX Rounding Bottom

Snapchat – Are you Ready to buy? 

S&P500 Rounding Top 

Market Update – S&P500 Apple Facebook and the Banks

CryptoCurrencies – BTC and ETH crash, Buying Opportunity? 

Market Update – Candles and Trades

Rounding Tops and Bottoms – S&P500 vs VIX

The Real Bubble – Interest Rates

Arbitrage Strategy – Crude Oil vs RD Shell

Tech, Banks, Gold and Oil

S&P500 – It’s now or never



Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


+500


Subscribe and stay informed!

Name
Email *


If you want to follow my Trades, then please click here and sign up for free



Do you want to create your own Dashboards? Click here and sign up!


The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 


Start Trading!


 
+500

Market Update – S&P500 vs VIX, DAX and Oil

Hi all,

Will the S&P500 form a Lower Low < 2320 and match the rounding top pattern?

Is VIX ready to drop and pop again?

Did the DAX start the Handle to retest at least 11.300?

As mentioned before, I will upload my analysis that I share on my eToro feed here on this page. Click on the link for the latest updates of the S&P500 vs VIX, the German Cup and Handle Pattern and an expected decline in Oil.

Enjoy and feel free to ask questions!


I added 3 interesting pages to my website that might help you to make more profitable trades and manage your assets.

  1. PatternTrader Strategy – During the week I will share interesting patterns here, copied from the social feed at eToro.
  2. Trend is our Friend Strategy – Dashboard of assets that I use to enter trades for the medium term.
  3. Cycle Dates – based on my own developed cyclical model and the law of 7(0).

Enjoy the charts below and your weekend!




Subscribe and stay informed!

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Click here to read more about my Two Strategies: Contrarian vs Trend following.


Copy My Trades – If you want to follow or copy my Trades, then please click here and sign up for free!  I’m keeping track of my Trades in my account named EdwinVandenBerg. 


READ MORE: 


Snapchat – Are you Ready to buy? 

S&P500 Rounding Top 

Market Update – S&P500 Apple Facebook and the Banks

CryptoCurrencies – BTC and ETH crash, Buying Opportunity? 

Market Update – Candles and Trades

Rounding Tops and Bottoms – S&P500 vs VIX

The Real Bubble – Interest Rates

Arbitrage Strategy – Crude Oil vs RD Shell

Tech, Banks, Gold and Oil

S&P500 – It’s now or never



Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


+500


Subscribe and stay informed!

Name
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If you want to follow my Trades, then please click here and sign up for free



Do you want to create your own Dashboards? Click here and sign up!


Copy my Trades or other Traders, sign up here for free!


The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 


Start Trading!


 
+500

Crude Oil – Rising Wedge 15m

Hi all,

I hope you had a nice and profitable trading week.

In this post I will discuss my current thesis on Crude Oil and what price levels are relevant to determine the next move.

Enjoy your weekend!



 


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Crude Oil


Copy My Trades – If you want to follow or copy my Trades, then sign up for free!

I’m keeping track of my Trades in my main account:  EdwinVandenBerg 


1. Crude Oil 15m Chart


Rising wedge, bearish reversal pattern 15m chart.

A break below $52.25 triggers $52.09 and $51.70.

A break > $52..36 triggers $52.50.

 

 


2. Crude Oil Daily Chart


Since the start of 2017, Oil is in a Pattern of Lower Highs and Lower Lows nicely trading between the green trend channel. At the end of February, Oil had the chance to break out of the green trend channel but the $55 seemed to much of a burden to break through and it dropped into the mid 40’s mid March. Three hammers follwed and a new short term uptrend into resistance area $52-55.

The Daily Chart shows clear and strong resistance in the $52-55 area and of course the previous High @ $55.21 is a key level to trigger new upside potential. For now, I’m bearish on Oil as long as it is not able to close above previous Highs. What I’m basically waiting for, is a break below $52 support, providing short term confirmation that Oil is likely to retest $48.5 and maybe even $45-44 over the period mid May- mid June.

I played Oil on the long side, as it formed several Hammer Candle Stick Patterns (see black ellipse mid March – end of March). I closed these trades at a decent profit and now I’m bearish again, waiting for a break < $52, as confirmation to add short positions. Stop Loss = Higher High > $55.21. A break > 55 and $58 is activated as price target.

 


3. Crude Oil Weekly Chart


The Weekly Chart of Crude Oil shows an uptrend since early 2016 with Higher Lows and Higher Highs but since the start of 2017, Crude Oil has shown Lower Highs and Lower Lows. So since the start of 2017, Crude Oil is still in a downtrend/bearish pattern as long as it fails to break above the $55.21.

Last week, the price of Oil surged 4% and faced resistance from the trendline at the $53 area.

If Oil is not able to close above the $53-55.5 resistance area in the next week(s), then it becomes more likely to expect a retest of support at $48 and maybe even a retest of levels below $45 during the next cycle windows mid March and mid June.

Summarized: there’s strong resistance in the 53-55.5 area. If that fails to break to the upside, then expect a retest of $48 and $45 over the next couple of weeks.

 

 


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Click here to read more about my Two Strategies: Contrarian vs Trend following.


Copy My Trades – If you want to follow or copy my Trades, then please click here and sign up for free!  I’m keeping track of my Trades in two different accounts: PatternTrader11 (contrarian) and EdwinVandenBerg (Trend is our Friend). 


READ MORE: 


Snapchat – Are you Ready to buy? 

S&P500 Rounding Top 

Market Update – S&P500 Apple Facebook and the Banks

CryptoCurrencies – BTC and ETH crash, Buying Opportunity? 

Market Update – Candles and Trades

Rounding Tops and Bottoms – S&P500 vs VIX

The Real Bubble – Interest Rates

Arbitrage Strategy – Crude Oil vs RD Shell

Tech, Banks, Gold and Oil

S&P500 – It’s now or never



Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


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The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 


Start Trading!


 
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Market Update – S&P500 VIX DAX UK100 Apple Tesla and more!

Hi all,

I added 3 interesting pages to my website that might help you to make more profitable trades and manage your assets.

  1. PatternTrader Strategy – During the week I will share interesting patterns here, copied from the social feed at eToro.
  2. Trend is our Friend Strategy – Dashboard of assets that I use to enter trades for the medium term.
  3. Cycle Dates – based on my own developed cyclical model and the law of 7(0).

Enjoy the charts below and your weekend!



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This weekend charts


S&P500 Monthly Chart – Forming a Doji (indecision/doubt) – Last three times it formed a bearish doji, it was followed by a bearish month.

 


Rounding Top S&P500 & Rounding Bottom VIX – Rounding Top becomes invalid if the S&P500 breaks above > 2400, so you could use that as stop loss


 

 

 

 


 


DAX Cup And Handle – Facing resistance 12.300-400



Snap – Buy in the 19-22 area for a retest of 28-30?


 


Cryptocurrencies – Bitcoin to start a new uptrend? Etehreum new short term downtrend to form a Higher Low and a new base to continue the medium term uptrend?



Europe – DAX and CAC on a Long signal, facing resistance. UK100 on a Short signal.



+500


Dow Jones Industrial and S&P500 on Short signals, Nasdaq on a Long signal. Nasdaq forms a Megaphone Pattern. R2000 at a key crossroad.



Oil close to a new Long signal after forming several hammer patterns (bullish reversal).

Gold and Silver on a Long signal, copper on a Short signal.



Apple forming a Megaphone pattern, 132 support/target for lower boundary. Facebook still on a Long signal, formed a doji and tried to get back above the green trend line. So far, it failed, so technically the trend is broken.

Tesla gapped up, but failed to continue to the upside so far. I’m short, stop loss if Higher Highs are formed.

Amazon is on fire, currently facing resistance from trendline.


 



Click here to read more about my Two Strategies: Contrarian vs Trend following.


Copy My Trades – If you want to follow or copy my Trades, then please click here and sign up for free!  I’m keeping track of my Trades in two different accounts: PatternTrader11 (contrarian) and EdwinVandenBerg (Trend is our Friend). 


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READ MORE: 


Snapchat – Are you Ready to buy? 

S&P500 Rounding Top 

Market Update – S&P500 Apple Facebook and the Banks

CryptoCurrencies – BTC and ETH crash, Buying Opportunity? 

Market Update – Candles and Trades

Rounding Tops and Bottoms – S&P500 vs VIX

The Real Bubble – Interest Rates

Arbitrage Strategy – Crude Oil vs RD Shell

Tech, Banks, Gold and Oil

S&P500 – It’s now or never

Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


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Do you want to create your own Dashboards? Click here and sign up!


Copy my Trades or other Traders, sign up here for free!


The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 


Start Trading!


 
+500


S&P500 vs VIX – Rounding Top and Bottom

Hi all,

Two more days and then it’s already the end of Quarter 1. Normally, at the end of months/quarters, there’s some windowdressing to make the books look better (management fee up) so that could lead to some more upside for the S&P500 into the end of this week.

Now, if we take a look at the Rounding Patterns that we see in the S&P500 and VIX, the S&P500 is facing resistance in the 2355-63 area. If the S&P500 is able to overcome that area, then the next target/resistance area is the 2370-80 area. If it fails to close above this resistance in the next few days, then a sell off to my 1st Target of 2300 becomes more likely. This pattern stays valid as long as the S&P500 does not form a close > 2400.

The last three times that the VIX formed a Rounding Bottom, it surged up by > 50%. If this patterns plays out once again as expected, then I expect the VIX to reach at least 19 over the next couple of weeks/months.


S&P500 Rounding Top and VIX Rounding Bottom


 

BONUS CHARTS


SNAP


Still following the pattern that I explained before. I will add long positions in the 19-22 area.


TESLA formed a Bearish Doji Star, a possible short term topping pattern


 


OIL formed 3 hammers in a row, signaling a short term Low to be formed, as mentioned in the weekend update



GOLD and SILVER – Gold broke the uptrend, failed to close back up again. Supertrend still on a Long, but short term I expect some downside pressure, find a new trend to follow, before taking off to new Highs


 



Click here to read more about my Two Strategies: Contrarian vs Trend following.


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READ MORE: 


Snapchat – Are you Ready to buy? 

S&P500 Rounding Top 

Market Update – S&P500 Apple Facebook and the Banks

CryptoCurrencies – BTC and ETH crash, Buying Opportunity? 

Market Update – Candles and Trades

Rounding Tops and Bottoms – S&P500 vs VIX

The Real Bubble – Interest Rates

Arbitrage Strategy – Crude Oil vs RD Shell

Tech, Banks, Gold and Oil

S&P500 – It’s now or never

Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


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Name
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If you want to follow my Trades, then please click here and sign up for free



Do you want to create your own Dashboards? Click here and sign up!


Copy my Trades or other Traders, sign up here for free!


The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 


Start Trading!


 
+500


The week ahead – 4 Stocks to Buy and 4 to Sell

Hi all,

In this update I would like to reflect on some of my trades in the PatternTrader11 account from last week and show you guys my watchlist for this week: what stocks to buy or sell?

Secondly, I will share my trades on the general markets that I execute in my second account The Trend is our Friend (EdwinVandenBerg).

One last note…this week I became a father for the first time, of a wonderful boy. Now, when I look back over my 35 years presence here, I wonder why people (including me 😉 are making a fuzz out of the small things in life and become frustrated about the market when it moves in the wrong direction. One glimpse at my boy and I close the computer and enjoy the “only” thing that matters right now…such a happy feeling guys, never thought it would be this great 🙂 What a beautiful life changer! I really hope you’ll all enjoy this feeling some day…

Enjoy the day!


Last Week’s Trades 


Short Accenture – 4% in the money right now, changed the trailing stop to 4%, so worst thing that can happen is a close at break even. Support = targets = 117.5, 116, 114.

 


Long Ride Aid Corporation at the open Friday – Bullish pattern known as a Morning Star although I have to admit the first green candle after the doji should have been a bit larger to classify as a real morningstar…I’m out if it sets a Lower Low. Target = +10%.



Long Snapchat – based on this pattern that I expect to play out. Fundamentally, Snapchat is one of the most overvalued stocks in my opinion. But I do want to play the technical patterns as mentioned before.

Short Facebook, broke down rising wedge, currently retests previous support, for now, it failed to close above, and often this leads to a sell off if close above support fails. Secondly, two days in a row, it formed weak upside candles and so far a Lower High. The positive is that it formed the Highest close last Friday, the bigger Trend is still positive (Higher Lows and Higher Highs) and clearly the stock is in demand compared to the general market.  After the expected downtrend of 5-10%, this is one of the stocks I would like to buy again. But first a short based on the rising wedge and a break out to the downside.


 

 


Short Gold – Facing resistance, Formed a Shooting Star and a doji, Lower High,  1225 retest next?

Frequent readers know I’m packed with Gold and Silver coins, so if this Trade does not work out and Gold breaks above 1250, I still make money. This short trade in CFD’s is for a quick win.

 


Long Oil – forming several hammer candle sticks (bullish) and a bullish engulfing last Friday. It also look like wave 3 down, wave 4 up and wave 5 down (Lower Low) was formed and so I expect 50 for a retest. Stop loss below the Low of Wednesday.


 

RWE – Sold early last week, currently at a 2% loss, short position not working so far, so if Monday, it breaks and closes above resistance, I will close this trade.


Cryptocurrencies

As mentioned last week, I sold 50% of my Bitcoin position @1150 and this week I invested 30% of that cash in Ethereum (wallet, no CFD, want the real stuff) @ 36 and 40, currently roughly 50, so up 30%.  Profitable switch so far. Long term investment.


 

 


Current positions in Portfolio


Bank of America – Shorted the Highs after a Shooting Star was formed @ 25.27, currently at a profit of 8.5%, changed the trailing stop to 4%, so guaranteed profits locked in of 4.5%. Last Friday, it formed a Hammer candle stick, also called a Hanging Man, could indicate upwards pressure.

 

Apple – still in short position, formed a Bearish Engulfing on Tuesday, waiting for the break down < support @ 140, if that breaks, 2nd support (target) @ 132.50 = 6%, 3rd target 127.5.

 


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Watchlist for this week

 


These stocks show either a Bearish CandleStick Pattern (SELL) or a Bullish CandleStick Pattern (BUY)

What I will do is check on Monday and see if I can find a nice entry to Buy or Sell the following stocks for a return of at least 3%. If it’s 3% in the money, then I will set the trailing stop at 3%, so break even. That’s the plan that I want to execute for the next couple of months in the PatternTrader11 account at eToro.


BUY = Bullish Englfing, Hammer, Morning Star, Bullish Harami, Three White Soldiers, Bullish Piercing Line, Bullish Belt Hold, inverted Hammer


P – Bullish Engulfing

PBR – Rounding Bottom, would not surprise me to see it going up this week.

 

FTR Hammer and Bullish Engulfing, a gap up would make sense to me.

  FTR zoomed out…currently forming bullish candle stick patterns at support…going up?

 

CNC – Bullish Engulfing

 


SELL: – if these 4 stocks show bearish price reaction early next week, a short position is the way to go.


EL

MU

SWKS

PM


 


THE TREND IS OUR FRIEND STRATEGY


S&P500 is at a SuperTrend Sell signal < 2401 forming a Rounding Top. Needs to form a Higher High to put the Bears back in their cage. For now, I still expect 2300 first, maybe 2200, but then Higher Highs > 2400.

DAX is still on a Long signal > 11.800. But be aware of the Cup and Handle Pattern.


VIX AND USA MARKETS – VIX on a BUY, DJI, SP500 and Nasdaq on a SELL.

These Trades will be executed in my 2nd account:

  1. Wait for a Lower High and a new Sell in the SuperTrend –> action = short
  2. Wait for a Higher Low and a new Buy in the SuperTrend –> action = long

For example, the S&P500 formed a Lower High and this was confirmed by a new Sell of the SuperTrend indicator = short position, stop loss at close > previous High (2401) or at SuperTrend key level (2380).



Click here to read more about my Two Strategies: Contrarian vs Trend following.


Copy My Trades – If you want to follow or copy my Trades, then please click here and sign up for free!  I’m keeping track of my Trades in two different accounts: PatternTrader11 (contrarian) and EdwinVandenBerg (Trend is our Friend). 


 


READ MORE: 


Snapchat – Are you Ready to buy? 

S&P500 Rounding Top 

Market Update – S&P500 Apple Facebook and the Banks

CryptoCurrencies – BTC and ETH crash, Buying Opportunity? 

Market Update – Candles and Trades

Rounding Tops and Bottoms – S&P500 vs VIX

The Real Bubble – Interest Rates

Arbitrage Strategy – Crude Oil vs RD Shell

Tech, Banks, Gold and Oil

S&P500 – It’s now or never

Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 

 


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Name
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If you want to follow my Trades, then please click here and sign up for free



Do you want to create your own Dashboards? Click here and sign up!


Copy my Trades or other Traders, sign up here for free!


The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 


Start Trading!


 
+500


 

 

 

 

Snapchat – Are you Ready to Buy?

Hi all,

In this update I would like to show you guys the progress on the Pattern that I’m seeing in the daily chart of Snapchat.

If you’re not familiar with this pattern yet, then please take a look at this update first.

As you can see in the chart below, after the IPO, Snapchat was sold and is currently forming a rounding bottom. I will enter the first long position today/this week and if price becomes more favorable, then I will add long positions in anticipation that the pattern will play out the same way it did with Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba.

Total exposure will be limited to max 3% of assets.

Feel free to ask questions if you have any!

Enjoy the day!



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Click here to read more about my Two Strategies: Contrarian vs Trend following.


Copy My Trades – If you want to follow or copy my Trades, then please click here and sign up for free


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READ MORE: 


S&P500 Rounding Top 

Market Update – S&P500 Apple Facebook and the Banks

CryptoCurrencies – BTC and ETH crash, Buying Opportunity? 

Market Update – Candles and Trades

Rounding Tops and Bottoms – S&P500 vs VIX

The Real Bubble – Interest Rates

Arbitrage Strategy – Crude Oil vs RD Shell

Tech, Banks, Gold and Oil

S&P500 – It’s now or never

Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 

 


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Name
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If you want to follow my Trades, then please click here and sign up for free



Do you want to create your own Dashboards? Click here and sign up!


Copy my Trades or other Traders, sign up here for free!


The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 


Start Trading!


 
+500


 

 

 

 

S&P500 Rounding Top and No Real Party without the Banks

Finally the market broke to the downside and formed the bearish results that I have been expecting for some time now.

Now, I would like to see it continue to the downside and form Lower Lows for the next couple of weeks into early April till 1st week of June (cycle analysis).

Three charts that I would like to share today: 1. The Rounding Top in the S&P500 2. The USA Banks and 3. The market indices.

ps. My son Riv Eli was born on Monday, he’s doing great, but that means the stock market is not so relevant for now. Obviously, I want to spend my time on my homefront, so I will not be positing on a daily frequency for at least the next week. When things settle down, I’ll be more active once again.

Enjoy the day guys!


Click here to read more about my Two Strategies: Contrarian vs  Trend following.


Copy My Trades – If you want to follow or copy my Trades, then please click here and sign up for free


Nr 1. The Rounding Top S&P500

If you’re not familiar with this analysis, then please start reading the analysis of March 11 and March 16 for a detailed explanation.

So far, the pattern of a rounding top is valid and Lower Lows should be expected.

There’s support @ 2345 from the green trendline, so once again, it will be interesting to see if it bounces back up for the day or that the S&P500 continues its way down to at least 2300.

 


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Nr 2. Market Indices

The Dow Jones Industrial and S&P500 formed the 1st Lower High and broke to the downside as expected. And as you can see, it also formed medium term new SELL signals. VIX is still on a buy/Long signal. Sell signals in the equity market stay valid till the Highs (S&P500 2400) break to the upside.

I bought VXX on Monday and I’m short the general equity market.

 



Nr 3. USA Banks 

As I mentioned several times before, without the banks, it’s not a real party! And the banks were signaling that a large move was coming.

I’m short Bank of America (9% return so far, no leverage), changed the stop loss to break even and will adjust the stop loss to in the money if possible.

 



READ MORE: 


Market Update – S&P500 Apple Facebook and the Banks

CryptoCurrencies – BTC and ETH crash, Buying Opportunity? 

Market Update – Candles and Trades

Rounding Tops and Bottoms – S&P500 vs VIX

The Real Bubble – Interest Rates

Arbitrage Strategy – Crude Oil vs RD Shell

Tech, Banks, Gold and Oil

S&P500 – It’s now or never

Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 

 


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Subscribe and stay informed!

Name
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If you want to follow my Trades, then please click here and sign up for free



READ MORE: 


CryptoCurrencies – BTC and ETH crash, Buying Opportunity? 

Market Update – Candles and Trades

Rounding Tops and Bottoms – S&P500 vs VIX

The Real Bubble – Interest Rates

Arbitrage Strategy – Crude Oil vs RD Shell

Tech, Banks, Gold and Oil

S&P500 – It’s now or never

Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


Subscribe and stay informed!

Name
Email *


Do you want to create your own Dashboards? Click here and sign up!


Copy my Trades or other Traders, sign up here for free!



The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 


Start Trading!


 
+500


 

 

 

 

Market Update – S&P500, DAX, VIX, Adidas, Nike, Apple and Facebook

 

The S&P500 monthly chart is forming a Doji so far, indicating doubt/indecision. The last two times it formed a Doji in the monthly chart, a sell off of at least 5% followed. March ain’t over, and a lot can happen in 2 weeks, but so far, March does not look that strong and the trend seems to get exhausted.

Bears are ready to take over, only question that I have is: will they take over this week or is a Higher High > 2400 first needed to shake out the remaining shorts? And only then, a corrective wave will start…wish I knew. I do think that risk:return over the next couple of weeks/months is in favor of bearish positions.

Check out the Rounding Topping Pattern, currently in progress on the Daily Chart of the S&P500.

Cycles (70 and 140 day) and Bradley (March 20) are signalling the S&P500 is close to forming a significant High and a corrective wave of 5-10% is likely to happen over the next couple of weeks to months into April – June. After that dip, I expect Higher Highs > 2500 for the flight into private assets and out of public assets. In my view, the real bubble isn’t the stock market this time, it’s the government bond market (record low rates). So money out of bonds, into equities for the next couple of years. 


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S&P500 Weekly Chart

Last week it formed a Hanging Man, and this week it was consolidating between the trend lines. Could go either way based on the weekly chart.

Support @ 2380 (trendline) and 2350-65 (horzizontal support). Resistance 2388-92 and 2400.

Keep an eye on the 2380, a break below and it could go fast, and furious, as this is major weekly support from trendlines.

 



S&P500 Daily Chart – Elliott Wave scenario analysis. The problem with Elliott Wave is always that there are two many ways to label a wave count, leading to conflicting scenario’s.

A break > 2400 —> 2450 seems next for end of March, early April. Orange scenario.

A break < 2360 —> 2300 becomes the next 1st target. Black scenario.

Early April is based on the next major cycle date (APR 4).


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Dow Jones Industrial formed a Lower High. Now I would like to see a new Sell confirmed by the Trend indicator. Confirmed when? If the close is < 20.800, a new medium term sell signal is triggered.

That’s my medium term strategy in a nutshell: wait for a Lower High and confirmation by SuperTrend new Sell. Or wait for a 1st Higher Low after a downtrend and confirmation by a new Buy signal of the SuperTrend indicator.

My short term strategy is to play the daily candle stick patterns (hammers, shooting stars, engulfing etc) for a quick ride up or down. You can follow my short term trades here: PatternTrader11.

 


Coca Cola formed a Lower High and is close to a new Medium Term Sell signal.

Pepsico formed a Higher High, but the candle sticks (Hanging Man 2x) indicate that the uptrend is getting exhausted, early warning. A break < 110.6 and it turned out t be a fake break out. So keep an eye on the 110.6.


McDonalds tried to break the 130, but for now it failed, forming a bearish candle stick, a shooting star.

 


Nike is forming two potentially bullish patterns: a flag and an inverted shoulder-head-shoulder.

A break > 58 opens the door to at least 1st target 60. A break below 57.3 and the 1st target becomes 56.

Pay attention: Nike, Inc. is expected to report earnings on 03/21/2017 after market close. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Feb 2017. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 17 analysts’ forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.52. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $0.55.


VIX forms a Rounding Bottom Pattern, bullish, click here, and last Friday, it formed a hammer candle stick, a short term bullish candle stick.

Medium term: SuperTrend on a Long signal > 10.8 since end of February. Did not pay off yet. New sell if close < 10.8.

 


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Facebook still trending inside the rising wedge, a bearish topping pattern. Getting narrow at the top and should lead to an explosive move next.

Short term, Facebook formed a Bearish Engulfing (Higher open, Lower close vs previous day). A break < 139 and there’s a break out of the wedge. Not there yet. For the medium term, the SuperTrend is still positive > 138, new medium term sell signal if close < 138.

 


Apple formed a Higher High in the form of a doji (doubt) followed by a Bearish Candlestick pattern: a Bearish Engulfing. Short term bearish pattern within an uptrend –> showing early warning signals for long positions.

Medium term: SuperTrend stays Long > 138.4 & New Short if close < 138.4.

 


The DAX is forming a Cup and Handle Pattern, bearish for the short term but very bullish for the long term once the 12.400 breaks to the upside. For now, I still think that selling the 12.100-400 area for a 1st target of 11.300 is the right strategy. Short term: sell the highs < 12.400. Long term: buy the dip >10.700.

For more info on the DAX Cup and Handle, click here.

 



Volkswagen – short term, it formed a hammer, bullish candle stick, but medium term, Volkswagen formed a new Sell signal last Friday in the SuperTrend after a Lower High.

My plan is to play a long position for the short term, based on the hammer candle stick. But I will sell any upside for the medium term as long as the close is < 144.

 


Adidas – gapped up, formed a shooting star (bearish) but did not follow through with downside yet, consolidated at gap up level.

Medium term still in uptrend > 175.

 


Summarized: I’m bearish for the next couple of weeks/months into June, but bullish on stocks for the long term (years). 


READ MORE: 


CryptoCurrencies – BTC and ETH crash, Buying Opportunity? 

Market Update – Candles and Trades

Rounding Tops and Bottoms – S&P500 vs VIX

The Real Bubble – Interest Rates

Arbitrage Strategy – Crude Oil vs RD Shell

Tech, Banks, Gold and Oil

S&P500 – It’s now or never

Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 

 


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READ MORE: 


CryptoCurrencies – BTC and ETH crash, Buying Opportunity? 

Market Update – Candles and Trades

Rounding Tops and Bottoms – S&P500 vs VIX

The Real Bubble – Interest Rates

Arbitrage Strategy – Crude Oil vs RD Shell

Tech, Banks, Gold and Oil

S&P500 – It’s now or never

Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


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The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 


Start Trading!


 
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Cryptocurrencies – BTC and ETH Crash – Buying Opportunity?

$ETHEREUM  36  $BTC 987  keep crashing down.

The Chart showed bearish divergence in the RSI, Lower Highs and Lower Lows and of course, SELL signals in the SuperTrend indicator.

Secondly, maybe even more important, The Euphoria was too much, new funds on cryptocurrencies pop up by the minute, social media and search volume peaked. So we had the crash….Now, I am focused on buying a possible hammer candlesticks for a reversal to the upside. And add positions for the long term.

$btc currently at 987 and $ETHEREUM  at 36. I invest in it for the long term, wallet, no CFD’s. Last week though, I sold 50% of my $btc in my wallet, as I noticed the sell signals, and today I added for half of that 50%, eth at 40. A short term swap and addition to my ETH position. Nice investment for the long term in my view. I would like to buy more eth at 30-35 and btc at 950 if possible. If it doesn’t come down that far, fine with me as I am happy with my current long term positions (max 5% of total assets in cryptocurrencies).

Going all the way down to zero, ridiculous right? 😉

Enjoy your weekend!



BITCOIN and ETHEREUM crash once again…buying opportunity in my view, long term investment, small part of assets.


 

 


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READ MORE: 


Rounding Tops and Bottoms – S&P500 vs VIX

The Real Bubble – Interest Rates

Arbitrage Strategy – Crude Oil vs RD Shell

Tech, Banks, Gold and Oil

S&P500 – It’s now or never

Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


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The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 


Start Trading!


 
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Market Update – Candles and Trades

Today I would like to share several candle stick patterns that I noticed in the markets and some trades that I made.


Let’s start with McDonalds….I think I like the food more (once in a while) than the stock…forming a Lower High and a Shooting Star today. Shorted the stock, stop loss > 130.

 


Nike – Shooting Star followed by two Hanging Man….bearish


Gold on a new Buy > 1190, Silver still needs some upside to trigger new Buy…Silver formed a shooting star today, bearish so I wonder which is right, Gold or Silver? Last time, Silver showed the way.


Bitcoin formed a Lower High and is on a Sell, no need to go/add long yet, Ethereum on a Buy, tulip mania? Rien ne va plus…


Banks – close to new sell signals, again. I’m not impressed, looks weak. And without the banks, it’s not a real party…keep that in mind. Banks show direction. Both ways. Sold BAC.


Shake Shack

Three hammers in a row, bullish, bought some yesterday, closed 50% for a profit, now other part is 0.1% up. Stop loss to break even, trailing.


Facebook – still in an uptrend, rising wedge, bearish topping pattern. SuperTrend still long > 138.7. Getting narrow at the top….costing me money right now but if it breaks the green support line, it could go fast…and furious.



Snap – Following the IPO pattern as described here…although it’s highly overvalued, a buy seems to be coming up….no position now…patience…and faith in pattern repetition 😉


Crude OIl – SuperTrend at Sell < 52. Formed a hammer two days ago (bullish) but today an inverted hammer (shooting star, bearish), so not very clear buy or sell short term.

 


Germany – DAX – tested the uptrend from below, sold off, formed a shooting star, bearish. SuperTrend still long > 11.800.

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern still valid.


SAP – text book shooting star…interesting to see what happens tomorrow. Normally, a sell off after a shooting star is expected.


SUMMARIZED

So a lot of bearish candle sticks…few bullish. Give it some time, but I think we’re getting closer to the next Correction and the Buy the Dip, into early April till June. See articles below. 


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READ MORE: 


Rounding Tops and Bottoms – S&P500 vs VIX

The Real Bubble – Interest Rates

Arbitrage Strategy – Crude Oil vs RD Shell

Tech, Banks, Gold and Oil

S&P500 – It’s now or never

Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


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The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 


Start Trading!


 
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S&P500 vs VIX – Rounding Tops and Bottoms

Hi all,

Today I would like to follow up on this analysis, where I explain the rounding top pattern of the S&P500 and the rounding bottom of the VIX.

Furthermore, I made several trades yesterday (Tesla long after new BUY signal SuperTrend, Shake Shack long after 3 hammers, Apple and FB (rising wedge, gonna snap someday, once again, I’m a bit early though) short into the close, Exxon long after a hammer candle stick and I closed several long positions at profits of >2% in a day, entered on Tuesday, see here). I’m also looking at the banks in the USA (JPM, GS, BAC) as they did not participate in the FED exuberance yesterday…food for thought…without the banks, it’s not a real party.


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Back to the S&P500 vs VIX. If you haven’t read part 1 yet, then please do. It will make you understand this post a lot better.

So now we’re here testing resistance from the blue arc, where the S&P500 could face resistance in the 2288-95 area for today. VIX briefly dipped below the arc yesterday but managed to close above, in my view that’s a sign of strength (wishful thinking?).

Based on this pattern, we could expect a sell off of equities over the next few days (VIX up) if the S&P500 is not able to close above the blue arc resistance area 2388-95.

So today could be a key day to see if this pattern stays valid or if it breaks out to the upside. A break > 2392 activates 2400. A break < 2380 activates 2355. A break < 2355 and the SuperTrend triggers a new Sell signal. If that happens, not likely for today though, then I will add short positions. Not there yet.

Frequent readers know I’m bearish on stocks for the short term (into June 2100-2200 target) and bullish on VIX. For the long term (years), I still believe we should buy stocks, the flight to relative safety, into private assets and out of public assets (government bonds, the real bubble).


S&P500 vs VIX


 


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READ MORE: 


The Real Bubble – Interest Rates

Arbitrage Strategy – Crude Oil vs RD Shell

Tech, Banks, Gold and Oil

S&P500 – It’s now or never

Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


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The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 


Start Trading!


 
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Start Trading! 


 

 

 

Rounding Tops and Bottoms – S&P500 vs VIX

Two patterns that I would like to share today: the rounding top (S&P500) and the rounding bottom (VIX).

Furthermore, I will share a short term Trading Strategy.

Let’s start with the rounding top pattern, currently seen in the S&P500.

 


ROUNDING TOP PATTERN


The rounding top is a reversal chart pattern, which develops after a price increase.

As a stock is trending higher, the rate of the rise will begin to slow down.  This is followed by a range pattern, which ultimately shifts into a slow gradual decrease.  This decrease ultimately leads to a bearish move.

Based on the rounding top pattern, the S&P500 could face resistance in the 2380-95 area for this week and crash into early April. Confirmation when 2350/65 breaks to the downside. Clearly we’re not there yet.

If on the other hand, the S&P500 is able to break through 2395/2401 and forms a Higher High, bears need to wait for a new opportunity to short the market.

So it’s crucial what will happen this week: will it break > 2395-2400, then expect a continuation of the uptrend into early April.

If, on the other hand, the S&P500 forms a Lower High < 2400, and breaks below 2350-65, then it’s likely that the corrective wave that I have been expecting for some time now, has started and will last at least into at least early April but most likely into early May/June.

Current Cycle duration: 127 calendar days. Next major cycle time windows: early April, May and June.

Last time the FED raised rates, equity markets crashed 10%. Same action, same outcome? Or will they chicken out once again?

I currently have 50% of my trading portfolio invested in short positions (stocks) and I will search for opportunities to add another 20% if price is able to break into the orange ellipse, 2380-95. I will use a stop loss of 2401, so my max risk is roughly 1% on new positions and 1.5% on current short term trading positions from current price of 2371. The possible return could be massive if the blue arc functions as resistance and the pattern leads to a drop of 10% from the Highs and a retest of at least 2200.

Please keep in mind, that the Trend is our Friend indicator is still on a Long signal > 2355, so any short bets are contrarian and have higher probabilities of ending up with a loss compared to when you swim upstream. If you’re more risk averse than I am, you should wait for a break of 2355 to enter/add short positions, a level bulls could use as a stop loss on current long positions.



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And the S&P500 daily chart zoomed out….2200 and maybe even 2080 for June 2017?

And then Higher Highs for the next few years into the year 2020…that’s my main thesis at the moment. So I’m bearish for the short term (weeks to months), but bullish for the long term (years).

My short term thesis becomes invalid if 2400 breaks to the upside and Higher Highs are formed, so that’s what I will use as a stop loss for my short term trading positions.



ROUNDING BOTTOM PATTERN VIX


The rounding bottom is a reversal chart pattern, which develops after a price decline.

As a stock is trending lower, the rate of the decline will begin to slow down.  This is followed by a range pattern, which ultimately shifts into a slow gradual increase.  This increase ultimately leads to a bullish move.

The rounding bottom pattern is seen when we take a look at the daily chart of volatility, the VIX.

This matches my thesis for the S&P500, because if the equity markets correct, volatility is likely to go up big time, 15 to 20 for the next couple of months?



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READ MORE: 


The Real Bubble – Interest Rates

Arbitrage Strategy – Crude Oil vs RD Shell

Tech, Banks, Gold and Oil

S&P500 – It’s now or never

Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


Subscribe and stay informed!

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Copy my Trades or other Traders, sign up here for free!


The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 


Start Trading! 
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Start Trading! 

 

 

 

Market Update – S&P500, Apple, Facebook, VIX, BTC and Oil

The S&P500 tested support area 2355-2370, with success for now, and based on the daily candle stick (doji with a positive close) it would make sense to expect more upside for at least this Friday. If the stock markets are able to break through the all time highs, it’s likely that the uptrend that lasts 125 days so far, will continue into the next major cycle date: end of March/early April till April 14 (140 calendar days since NOV 4-14). 

If the ADP report is explained bearish, then a break of 2355 to the downside is confirmation that a new downtrend is about to start.


 


VIX on a Buy, so are the markets, see weekly charts below. The USA stock market has to show a positive outcome after the ADP report or else the Dow Jones and S&P500 will form a bearish candle stick for the week.



Apple closed the gap and formed a daily hammer, indicating we should expect upside for Friday, March 10.  The $139 might form resistance from the green trendline.


 


Facebook closed above resistance line $138, strong signal, still in a strong uptrend. I do have to note that it’s forming a bearish rising wedge, and if it breaks to the downside < 137.5, it can go fast. Support @ 138, 137.5, 136 and 135. Resistance @ 140.


 


Royal Dutch Shell saw heavy intraday selling, producing a new Sell signal, but managed to control the damage into the close, forming a (weak form of a) Hammer candlestick. Today, it needs to show a follow up to the upside to expect that a Low has been formed. Seems like the Oil sector is bottoming out, same for BP.

Check out this Arbitrage Strategy between Oil and Shell that might be interesting! 


 


BP hammer candlestick, low in progress?


 


All commodities on a Sell, VIX and VXX on a Buy, Bitcoin new Sell but at support, so does not seem the right time to short with the upcoming vote, too much risk.

Oil seems ready for a bounce up.


 


PepsiCo – forming a double top @ 110.67? Key levels to keep an eye on are 110.67 to the upside and 108 to the downside. Follow the direction of the break.


 


McDonalds isn’t looking strong, needs to decide if it wants to break the 130 to the upside or 126 to the downside. Trade the direction of the break.

Exxon Mobile seems ready for a bounce up.


 


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READ MORE: 


The Real Bubble – Interest Rates

Arbitrage Strategy – Crude Oil vs RD Shell

Tech, Banks, Gold and Oil

S&P500 – It’s now or never

Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


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Copy my Trades or other Traders, sign up here for free!


The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 


Start Trading! 
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Start Trading! 

 

 

 

The Real Bubble – Interest Rates

The real bubble in my view, record low interest rates.

Once the sovereign bond market collapses, bonds will see an outflow and equities an inflow. That’s the reason why I expect Higher Highs for stocks for the next couple of years, flight out of public assets and into private assets. I’m short bonds for the long term, anticipating rising interest rates.


 

 


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READ MORE: 


Rounding Tops and Bottoms – S&P500 vs VIX

Arbitrage Strategy – Crude Oil vs RD Shell

Tech, Banks, Gold and Oil

S&P500 – It’s now or never

Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


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Copy my Trades or other Traders, sign up here for free!


The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 


Start Trading! 
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Arbitrage Strategy – Crude Oil vs RD Shell

An arbitrage idea that I would like to share for feedback.

My idea:

If you short $OIL, for example $100, no leverage, then you will receive annual fees of 20% at eToro… If you go long $RDS.B , also $100, then you will receive annual dividends of at least 5% (assuming Shell maintains it dividend policy…that’s the question).

Based on the chart, both assets move in correlation to each other, makes sense, so the price change in $OIL  if you have a short position, will be hedged by an opposite return in the share price (long), so a simple hedge, no 100% correlation though.

If they keep correlating the way they did, see chart below, you can make 25% in fees and dividends per year.

Risks: this strategy could produce a loss if Shell decides to decrease their dividends to strengthen their capital structure while Oil moves up. If the deviation between the two is more than 25% in opposite direction of your positions, then this trade will return negatively.

What do you think?



Shell is the blue line, not a 100% perfect match, but close enough.


 


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READ MORE: 


Tech, Banks, Gold and Oil

S&P500 – It’s now or never

Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


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The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 


Start Trading! 
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Tech, Banks, Oil and Gold

Several stocks and trades that I want to discuss briefly in today’s update:


Snapchat – Check out this pattern of recent IPO’s! 


I enjoined most of the ride down, sold the second and third third day of trading, closed them yesterday, 20% return. Now a small long position, +6%, stop loss to break even so it’s a riskless trade.


Apple – forming a flag pattern or triangle…a break > 140 or < 138 should show the direction for the next couple of days. 


 


Facebook, still trending inside the rising wedge, a bearish topping pattern. 


Keep an eye on the 137.4 and 136.5 to the downside for support levels and 138 resistance for tomorrow.

Trend average is Long > 134.65. 

Short < 134.65, stop loss High + 0.01.

Entered short positions too early, -1.2% currently. Thought it produced a bearish candle stick yesterday and was expecting a bit downside today. Did not happen yet. Stop loss 138.37, yesterday’s high.

 


Tesla, still on a Sell < 260. Only enjoyed a small part of the ride down mid FEB. 


 


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This is how I played the sell signal in Gold and Silver 3-5 days ago. Stop Loss to break even now. 



Oil on a Sell since early January < 53-55. I entered a first long position though in Royal Dutch Shell this week, -2% today, so not a good start. Not a trade for the short term, is a long term trade as in years, mainly for the dividend of 6% per year. Small position, 1% of assets. Will buy more dividend paying stocks over the next couple of months if I see buy signals. Financials for example.



Financials USA – all on a long signal, but not looking that energetic anymore, 2% downside needed to trigger sell signals. Not something I want to buy now, rather wait for a Higher Low. 




And finally the S&P500, still on a Long signal, but a new Sell signal is triggered if there’s a daily close < 2356. I;m a bear for the short term (weeks/months) but a bull for the long term (years into 2020). Flight to private assets. 


I still have a 2200 target between now and April-June but so far I have been wrong about the coming correction. Next time, I’ll wait for a sell in candlesticks or trend average, so < 2356.

 


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READ MORE: 


S&P500 – It’s now or never

Facebook – Rising Wedge

Cycle Time Windows

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


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The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 


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Dashboard Germany – New Sell Signals (DB, DTED, FRED)


Three out of the 16 assets that I follow on the German market are on a SELL: Deutsche Bank, Fresenius and Deutsche Telekom, showing an increase in sell signals from last week indicating the bias is slowly shifting to a more bearish view for the next couple of weeks to months.

Most stocks need 1-2% downside to trigger new sell signals though. As I mentioned here, in the update of the Cup and Handle Pattern of the DAX, I’m expecting a short term correction of 5-10% to form a Higher Low after which equity markets should rise to new Higher Highs (flight to private assets).

I entered short positions in eOn when it formed two inverted hammers in a row (red ellipse) and that one paid off right away, and I entered several speculative short positions in SAP and RWE, based on the weak candle stick patterns of the last two days, both stocks where I believe the uptrend has difficulty to sustain and a drop would make sense.

If the DAX breaks the 11700 level to the downside, a new Sell signal is triggered and that opens the door to a retest of 11.300.

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DAX PART 1 



DAX PART 2


 

 


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S&P500 – It’s now or never

Facebook – Rising Wedge

Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


Subscribe and stay informed!

Name
Email *


Do you want to create your own Dashboards? Click here and sign up!


Copy my Trades or other Traders, sign up here for free!


The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 



READ MORE: 


Start Trading! 
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Name
Email *


Start Trading! 

Facebook – Rising Wedge

 

A Rising Wedge for Facebook, bearish topping pattern.


Intraday selling pressure – Daily Chart close to a break of support/trendline



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Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 

 


Do you want to create your own Dashboards? Click here and sign up!


Copy my Trades or other Traders, sign up here for free!


The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 



READ MORE: 


DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


Start Trading! 
+500


Subscribe and stay informed!

Name
Email *


Start Trading! 

S&P500 – It’s Now or Never

The last three days, the drop seemed very controlled, forming doji’s (doubt) and trading in a narrow range, but I think that’s about to change…..and a huge move is coming.

Why? Well, bears are waiting for their seat at the table to take control. But if 2401 breaks to the upside, a squeeze will play out and push prices even higher.

If, on the other hand, 2370/55 breaks to the downside, bulls seem likely to take profit and reduce their long exposure. Igniting a further sell off.

2355 and 2401 are therefor key levels to determine the bias for the next couple of days/weeks.

A break < 2355 opens the door to 2300. A break above 2401 opens the door to 2450.

It’s that simple.


 


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Snapchat – Fundamental and Technical Sell

DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 

 


Do you want to create your own Dashboards? Click here and sign up!


Copy my Trades or other Traders, sign up here for free!


The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 



READ MORE: 


DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


Start Trading! 
+500


Subscribe and stay informed!

Name
Email *


Start Trading! 

Snapchat – Fundamental & Technical: Sell

 

Today, I would like to take a look at Snapchat from a Fundamental and Technical point of view.

 


Let’s start with some  FUNDAMENTALS from the IPO of Snapchat


 


Conclusion FUNDAMENTALS: Seems like Snapchat is a bit expensive….especially since it does not make a profit, growth seems to be decreasing, and competitors are cheaper. 



 

& now the Technical Analysis

 


TECHNICALS – What will happen with Price once the underwriters stop supporting the IPO process? Supply > Demand –> Price Down?


The first day of trading it opened at $24 and formed a High @ 26.05, but during the day, sellers stepped in and pushed the price back to a close of 24.48, forming a candlestick known as an inverted Hammer (bearish).

The second day of trading it gapped at the open, to the upside @ 26.39, formed a new intraday High @ 29.44 but once again, sellers stepped in during the day and pushed prices down to a close of 27.09 forming another inverted Hammer.

The optimist would say that both days, Higher Lows and Higher Highs were formed.

The pessimist claims that sellers step in and the candlesticks show two inverted hammers, which indicates that bulls are not strong enough to keep prices up at the highs of the day.

For the short term, I’m in the corner of the pessimists, aiming for a $20-23 target between now and early April, the next major cycle date and a blue print of the IPO pattern that we saw before with Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba.

Short term: Sell into green ellipse is my plan….I have a small short position, entered last Friday @ 26.73.


 

 


Do you want to create your own Dashboards? Click here and sign up!


Copy my Trades or other Traders, sign up here for free!


The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 



READ MORE: 


DAX Cup and Handle Pattern

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


Start Trading! 
+500


Subscribe and stay informed!

Name
Email *


Start Trading! 

DAX – Cup and Handle Pattern

The DAX is forming a Cup and Handle Pattern (Cup is close to finishing, Handle next). A Cup and Handle Pattern is a Bullish Continuation Pattern.

Currently, my view is that the Cup is close to finishing and we should expect the Handle (test of 11.300 – 10.700) to be formed over the next couple of weeks/months (next major cycle dates are early April and early June). Once the 12.400 breaks to the upside, it’s confirmation that the uptrend will continue.

Based on this pattern, the DAX 11.900-12.400 should be sold for 1st target 11.300 and 2nd target 10.700. Longer Term, we should buy the dips in my view, especially if the 12.400 breaks to the upside.

Last but not least, the RSI is showing Bearish Divergence, which is often followed by bearish price development.

Be prepared to buy the dips for the flight to private assets!


DAX Cup and Handle Pattern – Bullish continuation: Test 11.300-10.700 and break out > 12.400? 


 


The following documentary shows 3 Cycles of Time that have a direct impact on our lives and investment decisions:

  1. Global Warming and the next Ice Age to come. CO2 will be reduced significantly, same as every cycle has happened so far.
  2. The bond market will collapse, interest rates will go up and stocks will boom.
  3. The cycle of wars, approaching the climax near 2020.

Although I saw this documentary for the 1st time today, it perfectly aligns with my view on how we should invest for the next couple of years:

Capital Preservation Fund

Check out the Documentary here: Documentary “Missing Links – The Cycles of Time” 



READ MORE: 

The Trend is our Friend Dashboard: Stocks USA and EU, Commodities, Bitcoin and Interest Rates

S&P500 vs VIX – something doesn’t add up

S&P500 Elliott Wave and Cycles

Snapchat, same IPO pattern as Facebook, Twitter and Alibaba? 


Start Trading! 
+500


Subscribe and stay informed!

Name
Email *


Start Trading!